Preview (Pre tournament):
This year does not look like the best year for upsets frankly. The best teams are great, and the average net ratings of top teams is much higher than it has been in past years. All of the one seeds are elite, and many of the top teams have completely separated themselves from the rest of the bunch. Duke, Houston, Florida, and Auburn have separated themselves from everyone else, and are the favorites to win the title, Tennessee and Alabama are the top teams, with the SEC being the top conference, with 14 tournament teams. Other contenders are St John’s and Michigan State, who both struggle with 3 point shooting. Some popular upset picks are UCSD over Michigan, Akron over Arizona, McNeese over Clemson, High Point over Purdue, Drake over Missouri, Colorado State over Memphis (Colorado State is favored to win this game), and VCU over BYU. I see the upside in most of these picks, but I don’t see any real Cinderellas this year, because the best teams are just too good. My personal final four is Michigan State, Duke, Houston and Florida.
After Round 1:
This year, we had some of the fewest upsets across the board. The most notable Cinderella is McNeese, who beat Clemson in the first round. Arkansas beat Kansas, and no 1,2,3, or 4 seed lost a game. Colorado State beat Memphis, but they were also favored to win the game in the first place. If anything, the surprise of the tournament may have been Louisville losing to Creighton in the first round. They were ranked top 15 in the AP Poll coming into the tournament, and were underseeded as an 8, but still lost in the first round. Besides that, nothing big really happened, nothing unexpected.
After Round 2:
Colorado State almost stuns Maryland, going up 1 on a three pointer with 5 seconds left, before Maryland standout freshman Derik Queen hits a buzzer beater. BYU beats Wisconsin 91-89 in a wild finish. Arkansas beats St John’s in a coaching battle for the ages, despite both teams unable to hit a jump shot. Duke obliterates Baylor in a battle of Jeremy Roach vs his former team. Florida beats two time defending champ Uconn 77-75, ending their 13 game March Madness win streak. Houston holds on to beat Gonzaga, and McNeese and their Cinderella run quickly dies against Purdue.
Sweet 16 preview and picks:
Auburn vs Michigan, Michigan State vs Ole Miss, Florida vs Maryland, Texas Tech vs Arkansas, Duke vs Arizona, Alabama vs BYU, Houston vs Purdue, Tennessee vs Kentucky
My Picks:
Michigan, Michigan State, Florida, Arkansas, Duke, Alabama, Houston, Tennessee.
(Edit – Florida, Duke, and Alabama all won, while Arkansas ended up falling to Texas Tech after blowing a 16 point lead)
Reasoning: Michigan is on a heater right now. First winning the Big 10 tournament and then surviving the worst possible first round matchup, and beating a good Texas A&M team, I think Michigan can beat anybody in the country right now and should be considered a true national title contender, I think they knock off Auburn and lock up Johni Broome.
Michigan State I think is just the better program than Ole Miss, they’ve been shooting the 3 much better as of late and Tom Izzo is an elite coach.
Florida has one of the best players in the country and just knocked off Dan Hurley and UCONN in March. I think they are the national title favorites after that game.
Arkansas I think, will be the Cinderella of the tournament. After Calipari was ousted from Kentucky, I think he redeems himself and his recent early tournament exit with an Elite 8 run.
Duke may be the best team in the country, and their star duo of Cooper Flagg and Kon Kneuppel is enough to have them move on.
Alabama last year was an offensive team, being incredibly streaky, but they found consistency in their star guard Mark Sears. After the addition of Cliff Omoruyi from Rutgers, they’ve become elite on the defensive end as well, I think they cool off BYU’s hot shooting and can overpower them on offense as well.
Houston is elite, and frankly is the better team.
Tennessee lost both of their meetings to Kentucky in the regular season, but I think Tennessee gets redemption, and finds themselves in the elite 8 once again this year.
Elite 8 predictions:
Michigan State vs Michigan
Florida vs Arkansas
Duke vs Alabama
Houston vs Tennessee
My picks:
Michigan State. In a rivalry game and rematch of earlier in the season, I think Tom Izzo gets it done. Michigan State handled their business against Michigan twice this season, and frankly, I think nothing changes.
Florida ends Arkansas’ Cinderella run and moves on, as their elite offense shoots them out of the gym and out of the tournament.
I think Alabama Pulls off the upset against Duke, as they match up well and have been playing well as of late. Playing close games in the tournament is important to your success, and Alabama is experienced, going to the elite 8 last year as well, with older players on their team. Duke is led by freshmen.
Houston beats Tennessee in an instant classic game, two elite teams and great programs get into a dog fight. I wouldn’t be surprised if either team won, but I just know the game will be close.
Final 4:
Michigan State vs Florida
Alabama vs Houston
I think Michigan State’s shooting woes come back to finally bite them, and Florida’s fast paced offense just takes Michigan state out of the game. Walter Clayton Jr helps to cement his place as a first team all American, and proves that he is one of, if not the best player in the country.
Alabama pulls off another upset, and beats Houston, beating two straight one seeds. I think this game is won on the back of Mark Sears, another first team all American, outdueling LJ Cryer, another all American, in the process.
National Championship:
Florida vs Alabama
This was the SEC Championship, with Florida dismantling Alabama. The game was not close. While I do believe the game will be much closer this time around, I believe the result is ultimately the same. Florida, is my prediction to win the national championships. Walter Clayton Jr will come up big time in the clutch and win the most outstanding player.
